Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-10 99939.017959 105309.350373 110673.251032 116429.178072 122427.283731 128489.887326 135077.190599
2025-08-17 90710.934365 98905.348034 107313.525173 116575.129224 126479.428827 136742.548078 148170.366554
2025-08-24 84977.405293 95183.813329 105880.247520 117903.870859 131020.072702 144871.232405 160581.465276
2025-08-31 79615.378046 91243.979130 103650.906320 117836.768365 133569.893809 150446.355385 169879.523082
2025-09-07 76284.479794 89172.855616 103137.101257 119337.417026 137558.581422 157362.893658 180457.867154
2025-09-14 73173.937255 87085.710567 102369.953440 120334.811362 140795.401253 163295.168823 189828.334992
2025-09-21 69935.587953 84639.907604 101005.677118 120475.996606 142908.676222 167842.766699 197547.896523
2025-09-28 67071.884519 82458.339630 99791.635820 120645.897087 144930.470814 172189.876432 204969.407949
2025-10-05 65473.074824 81646.638715 100066.915574 122454.025271 148773.547931 178577.536084 214714.878115
2025-10-12 63854.905672 80717.542664 100123.451740 123935.294469 152182.931935 184435.059296 223845.004210
2025-10-19 61998.071031 79412.534200 99656.803584 124728.118891 154728.524740 189253.577254 231754.310528
2025-10-26 59954.675354 77795.078474 98739.985326 124913.367238 156496.379145 193120.958002 238528.451066
2025-11-02 58130.533424 76398.833012 98055.604311 125358.650058 158576.301112 197383.833220 245831.827300
2025-11-09 56253.571974 74871.399804 97154.878792 125492.511151 160246.493295 201143.867580 252544.987512
2025-11-16 55137.519244 74246.755749 97321.075093 126898.722676 163440.552295 206726.496586 261462.829621
2025-11-23 53366.216808 72732.101681 96329.832117 126826.350876 164787.138658 210057.467137 267659.576672
2025-11-30 52498.081340 72331.566930 96697.907071 128419.490717 168171.285194 215863.001180 276882.330413
2025-12-07 51432.400983 71636.518247 96661.473829 129478.347829 170876.773377 220838.990944 285111.724247
2025-12-14 50008.167714 70429.222896 95934.025691 129628.220390 172420.234468 224374.025214 291575.662133
2025-12-21 48670.038235 69292.125269 95257.891537 129808.585773 173975.559535 227909.685876 298042.326073
2025-12-28 48162.115944 69230.614726 95949.395983 131727.946362 177727.327807 234184.365732 307937.346243
2026-01-04 47532.332329 68982.747871 96380.737128 133300.111149 181036.148404 239918.434853 317190.322845
2026-01-11 46624.981229 68333.003073 96263.131108 134141.502139 183400.694233 244470.813884 324983.619584